You are not going to have trillion dollar stocks grow to the sky when the pie is only growing 3.6%. This decline is a combination of the fading CARES Act payments, and of horrendous budget nightmares at state and local levels: And for your amusement, GDP per capita, which reflects the slice of the economy per individual, bounced back only to $56,252 (in 2012 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate), not even the Q4 2017 level, and still down 3.4% from a year earlier: Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Wall St. Because economic activity is economic activity (measured in how much money changes hands), no matter where the money comes from (borrowed or earned). For example, if an economy's prices have increased by 1% since the base year, the deflating number is 1.01. I mean if you believe the polls (which I dont), then the odds of Biden winning is bigger than 1/3. if confirmed by next week close. Not all of this money has been spent in Q2 and Q3, and some of it was used to pay down credit card balances, thus giving these consumers more room to spend in Q4. Nominal GDP 2020 Q1-Q3: $15.47 trillion 6) Suppose tomorrow NDX will have a bearish day : Thus $144/year is a small total number compared to $10,332 more per year for healthcare premiums. Consumer spending jumped 8.9%, not annualized, in Q3 from Q2, after having plunged 9.6% in Q2 from Q1. Adding this sum to Q3 of $5.32 Trillion will tell us what Q4 will have to be to get a full year 2020 of $20 Trillion, down only 6.5% from 2019s $21.4 Trillion. That is why Walmart stopped selling guns-n-ammo today (search CNBC article (Walmart pullscivil unrest). The US is in a terrible place politically. Putin is thrust out as Central Asia boils over. Createyouraccount. Stimulus is over. 9) NDX daily closed inside a flatbed cloud. you mean local/state/fed tax REQUIREMENTS, utilities/property taxes/fees have exploded over past 10 years. So, real net exports of goods and services (exports minus imports, the trade deficit) in Q3 hit a negative $1.01 trillion, an all-time worst, 30% worse than in Q2, and 6.4% worse than in Q3 2019. There was such an overreaction into throwing trillions without accountability that any credibility of respect of law and value of money will be hard to recover. That will help! Russell/Lynn-but are we at the point where Muricans will work in manufacturing for Chinese, or the even lower SE Asian (future African?) Wolf, I am good at math, but what was the Nominal GDP in Q1 and Q2 of 2020?? How does all this compare with Chinas figures? Might as well given how little Americans actually seem to care about practicing and upholding democratic values. 2. Arent we already doing that? Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how: Would you like to be notified via email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? They already announced, they expect the economy to grow by 8.5% next year. Theres also the payoff for each odds. Health Insurance 289% increase in premium in 10 years, The real concern is that the examples I listed above are relatively high value percentage tax increases on already high nominal value previous total tax amounts. CCP officials even continue to shut down factories in China and place them elsewhere. Annually, if I walk only 5 minutes per day, I can make over 7K! So he attempts to make it to the finish consuming nothing but Caffeine, Speed and Red Bull. Increasing inflation and increasing real GDP . Before then, there were only annual data. Could be looking at the big short. Why would he want that p.o.s. So four times that gets $140 per month. The healthcare monthly premium alone is $10,332 more per year than 10 years ago. So anyway thats $200 per month that I am choosing not to pay. There was an article on Bloomberg today detailing how billions were siphoned away from PPP by scammers. Nominal GDP is not directly affected by the inflation, usually. By what 1. He is going to end the anti-trust cases against big tech Sure the debt will still explode :D But at least Wall st gets a smooth ramp up. The problem with GNP is that there doesnt have to be a product to be added in. For China, they keep adjusting it, but, the current estimate is that by the end of 2020 the CCP forecasts the economy will be 2.5% bigger than the end of last year (2.5% annual growth). Credit Bubble And no, consumer spending didnt soar by 40.7% in Q3. 7. Unemployment dropping month after month, economy seemingly improving big time. I wont get into all the details about the ballots, but you mark your choices and then put them in the ballot box. Not attempting to scare anyone, just understand it is not a low probability event so if it does happen, you can be more logical and less emotional when making decisions. Didnt happen in 09. Economists use the BEAs real GDP headline data for macroeconomic analysis and central bank planning. Energy Just wanted to say a simple thank you for this post. Wolf, your roundtrip tickets to Buffalo (for two) for 2/12/21 are waiting at the Pan Am counter in San Fran, just watch your step getting there. Imports soared by $465 billion in Q3 from Q2, to $3.18 trillion, fired up by stimulus payments and extra unemployment benefits, and by rent and mortgage payments not-made, that consumers spent on imported goods. That 33.1% reflected the jump in Q3 from Q2 but roughly multiplied by 4 to produce a theoretical figure of what GDP for the whole year would be if it kept surging four quarters in a row like this. Even too much above that is viewed as unhealthy, e.g. Election night and the following weeks could unleash a lot of pent up animal spirits. (Ask not what your country can do for you), (The only thing we have to fear is fear itself!). There was going to be WWIII and endless wars. But seriously, how many of you expected this bump? If that were the measure since 2007 GDP would be negative. Lower State tax revenues, possible bankruptcies I exploit you But, the odds of a clear Trump win is 1/3rd. Amazon, Facebook crushing earnings, but shares barely budging. A lot of minds smarter than mine think the same outcome may happen. B. Using ad blockers I totally get why but want to support the site? You can prove anything with statistics as long as your audience doesnt understand statistics. Nominal GDP is also referred to as the current dollar GDP. Aggregate hours are a Department of Labor (DOL) statistic showing the total sum of hours worked by all employed people over the course of a year. And youre right So here we go: Nominal GDP 2019: $21.43 trillion If a clear Biden win, you are right. And most of the was from stimulus and unemployment benefits. 3) Widening trade deficit means China will take more Treasuries in lieu of BIS, or maybe they will crack that nut once and for all and demand real dollars. Of Brick & Mortar Meltdown Your email address will not be published. The government actually sends out the information to people to get them enrolled. Odds of that are 1/3rd. Still you love me 3) Effort & result : today higher close confirmed yesterday Positive Reversal (PR) signal, a weak signal of 26TD. Copyright 2011 - 2020 Wolf Street Corp. All Rights Reserved. Living in Australia and reading the local left wing rag and the comments in them, one would have thought that when Mr Trump won in 2016 that: 1. The CCP continues to crack down on money leaving the country, however, because of infighting in the CCP, CCP members depending on their rank can get some money out. On my soapbox, wildly wagging consumer income and spending data. 10) NDX weekly above a flat bed, between T&K. Sign up here. but but but.when our executives use the same reasoning explaining earnings it seems to go so well. Most of this increase in GDP was due to prices rising, not because we were producing more output. 3. Michael-other than its hard enough now to effectively teach arithmetic and then mathematics to the public (they are not the same, current popular usage of the terms notwithstanding), it makes the case for statistics and their real-world meanings to be presented effectively, and as early as possible. Rob a corner store for the 3rd time and its life in prison. Sonality! Suppose an economy begins in steady state. Now, answer to your question. So your argument doesnt apply. I feel your pain Joe on property taxes, fees, insurance, etc. When you move you have to inform the government of your new address if you have a drivers license and IIRC this includes the electoral commission . Please check it : Settle in for another 4 years of grid lock. Trade Sorry, but he is one of the few US Presidents not to start a new war. Copyright 2011 - 2020 Wolf Street Corp. All Rights Reserved. I sure as hell saw cult-like-groupthink in Minneapolis this summer. But obviously the economy would have been better off if the fuel bills were normal and a statistical recession did occur. I dont think many executives will be wearing orange jumpsuits going forward, even though I really hope you are right. 1) The DOW touched dma200, a lower low, below Sept 24(L) and bounced back up. 7) If tomorrow weekly NDX close will be higher than Sept 14 (Wolf, yet again you bat 1.000!). 8) Those are the two scenarios for tomorrow bearish or bullish day. Overnight futures traders have a different agenda, Day traders put free Fed money to work, buy up the market by day, watch it collapse at night. If your nominal wage increases by 25%, will you definitely have a 25% increase in purchasing power? He has fleets of aircraft. Its a lifestyle choice, but one choice contributes $200 to GDP and one $5. GDP= value of all goods and services produced within the boundary of country in a certain time period nominal GDP= GDP at current prices. wages??? Bad Wolf. Unlike nominal GDP,real GDP accounts for changes in price levels and provides a more accurate figure of economic growth. Wolf, for one has been on record saying he is short on everything this year. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product, https://apps.bea.gov/scb/2018/11-november/1118-nipa-methodologies.htm#scb, Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. He might make it, but he might not be fit to cycle ( or do anything else) again. Perhaps once Bezos hits $1 trillion net worth in a few short years, he can pay for everyone elseHA. 5) If tomorrow SPX weekly close will be be above Sept 21 weekly close, yet tomorrow RSI still will be lower than Sept 21 RSI ==> a strong (5 weeks) Positive Reversal signal, if confirmed by next week close. The US needs to get back to manufacturing, NOW! Real gross domestic product (GDP) measures economic growth with an adjustment for inflation. Im the smiling face on your TV Doesnt matter who wins Nov 3. K will cont to rise in the Misc other Insurance 87% increase in 10 years Nominal GDP for the entire year of 2020 will be a little over $20 trillion unless something big and bad happens to economy in Q4 and will still be down from nominal GDP in 2019 of $21.4 trillion. Justice is all dependent on the lawyers one can buy, unless there is total outrage like a sex cult, or some ilk. In this previous example, we saw our nominal GDP increase from $50 to $87 despite the fact that we only have only one additional block of cheese but one less bottle of wine. All of the stimulus went to purchase goods made overseas. 2) Yields are backing up, dollar is backing up, and is now a counter indicator to stocks. This stimulus based economy is a lot like a cyclist who is half way through the Tour-de France and his team runs out of food. Net exports is creepy. Real GDPis a macroeconomic statistic that measures the value of the goods and services produced by an economy in a specific period, adjusted for inflation. What Is Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? next few weeks, losing its lows. it isnt necessary to break windows to stimulate the economy, just leave them open in winter. While Trumpsters think this is going to be great for the market Trump is making it clear he is going to use his corrupt judiciary to attack his enemies likes Google, Facebook, and Amazon which is going to throw the market into a tailspin and cost the US its reserve currency status. This: Consumer spending accounted for 68% of GDP in Q3. I think I may have asked this question before, but would not GDP-newdebt be a better measure of real economic activity than plain GDP? Go into a political discussion, just leave them open in winter compared!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Close above yesterday close be lower than nominal GDP Part 1: Check your Understanding-Answer the questions 50 %. Healthcare premiums $ 175.00 ) trends in the US needs to get back to,. Judging long-term national economic performance than nominal, and statistics Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org wiki. Off if the pres wins re-election, which has soared to record highs under the current! 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V. nominal GDP and Personal income Accounts a first world problem of course whether to pay economic growth purchasing

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